If Vegas is projecting the Vikings to win by ten, it can be a positive game flow for the running backs to get more touches. If a team is projected to trail, that can mean more opportunities for the passing game.
The matchup will also play a factor in your decision making as you want to target the easier defenses. For ownership purposes in tournaments, you might take more risks against more challenging opponents. Cash games are also going to be about building balanced lineups and not diving deep down into the scrubs for value. In tournaments, you are competing against an entire field to try and finish in the top spot. This means taking more risk and differing from what might be popular that week.
It means to work in some contrarian plays or find ways to correlate for upside. Some great ways to do that is pairing players together from the same team, especially quarterbacks and wide receivers or tight ends.
A pass from Drew Brees to Michael Thomas will now be ten points if you have the two of them together plus the yardage. You can also game stack and get the back and forth correlation of a high shootout game. There are a few ways to find lower owned players to mix into a lineup, and that can be by targeting the less obvious matchups where a good defense will force a more casual fantasy player off someone.
Julio Jones going up against a top-five defense is not quite the same as John Brown going up against a top-five defense, yet some will treat it that way, and Jones will go into the week being lower owned. There is good chalk and bad chalk as some weeks there will be a criminally underpriced player that will catch the public's attention.
Projections will be different between sites because each site has its own scoring system. DraftKings uses one point per reception and has added bonuses while FanDuel has no bonuses and uses. When you hear the term floor, it is referring to what tends to be the average amount of fantasy points a player puts up each week.
A player with a high floor means they are a safe fantasy player, compared to a riskier player who has a lower floor. A player's ceiling is the highest amount of fantasy points they can reach. We calculate this with historical data.
A vertical threat wide receiver could have the potential for a total of 25 fantasy points, where another could have a ceiling of just Tyreek Hill Fantasy KC. Trevor Siemian Fantasy NO. Demario Davis Fantasy NO. Klein Fantasy BUF. Devin White Fantasy TB.
Nevertheless, we provide the FantasyPros expert consensus ranking ECR that combines all of their sources of rankings. How does the sleeper ranking work in the downloaded data file? It looks like there is a ranking of Is 1 the best sleeper or most likely to be a sleeper? Hi, two questions: 1. Is that right? Thanks Isaac! Any update on fixing impute? Would it be possible to export the raw data of games missed at least? Works now, thanks! Which webapp? Not aware of any issues with the Projections tool, however.
I changed the scoring settings, and player position ranks changed. To reproduce, I just check the impute box in the settings and reload the data. Hey Isaac. If you use the default settings but check the impute box, it now shows QBs for the top rows. Have you worked on anything dealing with tiers? Anyway you know of to take projections from the app and put them into a tier? Is it just me or did some of the historical data disappear?
Earlier in the week I saw that season has weeks Now I only see weeks Also, is there a way to pull the historical projections using syntax similar to below? Ultimately, I am trying to build a dataset with week by week projections for each source.
Thanks for the help. I saw that the projections were updated today. They are different. While I notice the date is off by one day, they are still pretty different.
Any clue why? Do you have any suggestions on how I might import some of your data to another draft tool? That tool coupled with your info would be epic. The other tool also uses ECR ranks from fantasy pros.
The only problem is quite a few of the players are reversed in order. For example D. Bryant has a average rank of Both would be 11, but the FP site has Bryant then Lamar. You have Lamar then Bryant. That would make the imported data mismatched. We updated ECR to reflect the decimal values.
We sort by VOR. Hi Isaac, great looking site!! I was wondering if you plan on offering weekly projections instead of just season long projections?
Hi Isaac. Two questions for you. In my case I am referring to a season long snake draft league. First, is there any value in building a statistical model from scratch, alongside your projections approach. If so, then my understanding is that the real source of edge in fantasy is primarily a function of data visualization and not statistical analysis once you have removed the biases from all the data sources. That leads me to my next question. In most of my leagues, the only rankings people look at are ESPN.
How would derive an appropriate weighting scheme to a situation like that? There could be benefits in generating a statistical model from scratch.
Two issues: this will be very time consuming a to collect the necessary data and b to generate the model. Might be a nice supplement to the other sources when calculating the wisdom of the crowd, however. Only way to know is to try! Other sources do, however e.
The AAV in the Projections tool is for a team league. Hey Isaac, I was wondering about how frequent updates would be for weekly projections. Would they be up to the last hour before kickoff or once or twice a week? Thanks for all you do! I notice that the average auction value on the projection tool is significantly lower than other sources. It always shows all remaining players. The Highest Ceiling and Highest Floor section is closed by default.
You have to click it to show it. The bottom section showing all remaining players is separate. I have similar thoughts to Johnny in that the averages feeding through the AAV appear to low for what will realistically take place in my auction. Re: the low AAVs, they are the average of multiple sources. You can specify a specific source e. Hey Isaac, any idea whether the issue of AAVs not changing in the lineup optimizer app might be rectified before the weekend?
I have my draft this weekend and would be keen to play around with it beforehand if possible. I would love to automate this process but as best I can tell I need an actual link directly to the raw projections file.
Is there a direct link available for the raw projections data? Update to my previous comment. Great tool I used to do this painfully with Evolver.
Is there a way you would suggest to download the data from the Lineup Optimizer page for putting into Excel? You can download the data from the Projections app but not currently from the Lineup Optimizer.
See the above post for how to download and import into Excel. The latter are effectively redundant because the mocks are so poorly attended. I have removed the Excel link, as it is more difficult to keep updated and at this time of the printable fantasy football rankings Excel Details: Downloadable Fantasy Football Spreadsheets - Excel If you're looking for fantasy football spreadsheets that you can download, print out or make adjustments to, here they are.
I have removed the Excel link, as it is more difficult to keep updated and at this time of the espn fantasy football cheat sheets printable. Details: Excel Details: Outlook: White is the perfect example of a player who is better for real-life football than fantasy.
As the pass-catching back under Tom Brady, White excelled with Excel Details: Don't trust any 1 fantasy football expert? Excel Details: Fantasy Analysis. Excel Details: Player rankings for the remainder of the season. A useful tool to help you assess a player's value when contemplating trades or free agent pickups.
Rankings for the entirety of the playoffs. The numbers that drive the bus. Customize our player projections to your league. Create a league profile and insert your scoring system with My FF Today.
My name is Isaac and I'm an assistant professor with a Ph. Why am I writing about fantasy football and data analysis? Because fantasy football involves the intersection of two things I love: sports and statistics. With this site, I hope to demonstrate the relevance of statistics for choosing the best team in fantasy football.
0コメント